Week Ahead - Jun 8th

Any potential break from the prolonged impasse between Iran and the US will dictate global markets next week, as elevated energy prices continue to make central banks heed inflationary risks. The US is due to release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauge before this month's Federal Reserve decision, in addition to existing home sales and the trade balance. Likewise, trade data and inflation prints are also awaited in China. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada will set their monetary policy. The UK will release April's GDP and join Germany in posting trade balances and industrial production. Elsewhere, Australia will release industry leading indicators and Brazil, Mexico, and Russia should unveil their CPIs. On the corporate front, SpaceX will undergo what is likely to be the largest IPO on record. Additionally, OPEC+ will vote on the cartel's output quota in their first meeting without the UAE.
Andre Joaquim | andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com
6/5/2026 3:14:24 PM
Americas
In the US, the second week of June will be dominated by the release of the highly anticipated May CPI report, alongside the producer price index and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for mid-June. Forecasts suggest the US inflation rate likely rose to 4.2% year-over-year last month, the highest since April 2023, driven by another surge in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Core inflation is also expected to edge up to a seven-month high of 2.9%. The monthly PPI is seen at 0.8% in May, easing from April’s four-year high of 1.4%, while the core index is expected to rise by 0.4%. Consumer sentiment is projected to recover slightly in early June but remain near May’s record low. Other key US economic data includes May’s existing home sales, April’s trade balance, and the government budget statement for May. On the corporate side, SpaceX shares are due to start trading on Friday in what is expected to be the largest IPO on record. Earnings updates are expected from Oracle, GameStop, and Adobe, while Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference will be closely watched as the company is expected to unveil its new AI strategy. In the rest of the Americas, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach following a stronger-than-expected employment report and ahead of May’s inflation data due later this month. Investors will also digest Canada’s trade figures, as well as inflation data from Mexico and Brazil.

Downtown New York City, NY

Europe
The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bps on Thursday. The move comes after Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, its highest level in more than two and a half years. Core and services inflation also strengthened, suggesting that price pressures are becoming more broad-based and extending beyond energy costs. However, revised data showed the Eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since late 2022. Turkey’s central bank is also scheduled to announce its latest interest-rate decision. On the data front, attention will focus on Germany’s trade balance, factory orders, and industrial production. Factory orders are expected to fall 1.2% after a strong 5% increase in March, while industrial output is forecast to rise for the first time in five months. Industrial production figures are also due from  Italy and Turkey. In the United Kingdom, the spotlight will be on GDP data, alongside manufacturing output and trade figures. The economy is expected to have contracted in April, which would mark its first monthly decline in eight months. Additional releases include the BRC Retail Sales Monitor and the RICS House Price Balance. In Switzerland, consumer confidence is expected to improve for a second consecutive month, although it is likely to remain firmly in negative territory. Meanwhile, Russia’s annual inflation rate is projected to ease to 5.4%, its lowest level since August 2023.

Seat of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

Asia Pacific
In China, investors will closely monitor trade data, with the trade surplus forecast to widen to $91.5 billion in May from $84.82 billion in April. Exports are expected to rise by 14.3%, while imports are projected to surge by 25%. Inflation data is also due, with the headline rate for May expected to edge up to 1.3% from 1.2% a month earlier. Producer price inflation likely increased at a faster pace of 3.9%. Credit indicators are also on the agenda, with new yuan loans expected to rebound, rising by CNY 540 billion following a CNY 10 billion decline in April. In Japan, attention will be on a series of economic releases, including final first-quarter GDP, which is expected to show slightly stronger growth of 0.3%, compared with 0.2% in the initial estimate. Producer price inflation is seen accelerating to 5.5%, while bank lending is also expected to increase at a faster pace. Other key data releases include the current account balance, machine tool orders, final industrial production figures, and a business sentiment indicator. In India, inflation will be in focus, while in Australia, investors will assess consumer and business confidence surveys as well as consumer inflation expectations. Elsewhere, South Korea is set to release final first-quarter GDP figures, and labour market data from South Korea, the Philippines, and Malaysia will also be closely watched. Trade data from Taiwan will likewise attract market attention.

Beijing, China